Fear of novelty : a model of scientific discovery with strategic uncertainty

Damien Besancenot (1) , Radu Vranceanu (2)

1 CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord
2 ESSEC Business School and THEMA (UMR 8184)

This paper analyzes the production of fundamental research as a coordination game played by scholars. In the model, scholars decide to adopt a new idea only if they believe that a critical mass of peers is following a similar research strategy. If researchers observe only a noisy idiosyncratic signal of the true scientifi…c potential of a new idea, we show that the game presents a single threshold equilibrium. In this environment, fundamental research proceeds with large structural breaks followed by long periods of time in which new ideas are unsuccessful. The likelihood of a new idea emerging depends on various parameters, including the rewards of working in the old paradigm, the critical mass of researchers required to create a new school of thought and scholars’ ability to properly assess the scientifi…c value of new ideas.

Mots clés: Economics of science; Scienti c discovery; Strategic complementarity; Strategic un- certainty; Global games

Domaines: Economies et finances

Damien Besancenot, Radu Vranceanu. Fear of novelty : a model of scientific discovery with strategic uncertainty. 2014. ⟨hal-01117929⟩